With more than 40 million confirmed cases, India has the world’s second-biggest caseload, behind the US. More than half a million deaths have been officially recorded – the third-largest toll in the world.
Is there reason to believe the country should prepare for a fourth wave?
The good news is that daily new cases have fallen to their lowest in nearly two years.
The Omicron variant – which carries more than 50 genetic mutations and is now causing a fresh wave of infections in parts of the world – ripped through India in the winter. Cases have now receded.
With 1,054 fresh cases, India’s COVID-19 tally has climbed to 4,30,35,271, while the death count due to the viral disease has gone up to 5,21,685 with 29 more fatalities, the Union health ministry said on Sunday(10 March).
However, the number of active cases of the infection has further declined to 11,132, according to the ministry’s data updated at 8 am.
The active cases account for 0.03 per cent of the total caseload, while the national COVID-19 recovery rate remained at 98.76 per cent, the ministry said.
A reduction of 233 cases was recorded in the active caseload in a span of 24 hours, it added.
The daily positivity rate was recorded at 0.25 per cent and the weekly positivity rate was 0.23 per cent, according to the ministry.
The number of people who have recuperated from the disease has gone up to 4,25,02,454, while the case fatality rate was recorded at 1.21 per cent.
The total number of Covid vaccine doses administered in the country has exceeded 185.7 crore.
The ministry stressed that more than 70 per cent of the deaths occurred due to comorbidities.
Should India worry about a fourth wave?
A controversial modelling study by scientists at IIT, India’s top technology school, has predicted a fourth wave beginning in June and peaking in August.
But many epidemiologists are deeply skeptical of the study and cautiously optimistic about the future.
One reason, they say, is that most Indians have acquired protective immunity to the virus by contracting the infection or by getting the vaccine. Also, a majority of Indians are vaccinated – and many have had breakthrough infections after being jabbed.
Secondly, the uptick of cases in Europe and elsewhere is being caused by an easily spread sub-variant of Omicron called BA.2. In February, Indian scientists sampling sequences reported that BA.2 – a virus which is also better able to evade the vaccine – was already the dominant strain fuelling the country’s Omicron surge.
But doesn’t immunity wane over time?
It does. But some studies suggest three doses of a vaccine should help protect people from severe disease and death for a reasonably long time.
Booster shots help the body make more neutralising antibodies – a key part of our immune defences – to fight the virus. Since January, India has administered more than 20 million vaccine doses as boosters, curiously calling them “precaution doses”.
Health and frontline workers and people above 60 years old with comorbidities are currently eligible to take the booster jab.
Most of us have already received two doses of the Covid-19 vaccination. After permitting booster doses for those above the age of 60, the government has now said that all persons above the age of 18 can get booster doses from April 10.
Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest vaccine maker, says it is sitting on a stock of 200 million doses of Covishield. This is the most used vaccine in India, accounting for more than 80% of administered doses.
Since the government has decided that the booster will be the same vaccine that was given to a person for their first and second doses, Covishield is mainly being given as a third dose.
A booster strategy needs to be driven by data that monitors precisely when vaccine protection begins to wane in different age groups. In the US, for example, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has clear guidelines on who can get a booster shot and when and which vaccine can be used.
India has approved nine Covid vaccines, five of which have been locally made. Only two have mainly been used.
So what about the near future?
In densely populated countries such as India, living with the virus is possible only when most people have some good protection against severe diseases through previous infection or immunisation – something Indians appear to already have.
The elderly and vulnerable – who can catch the infection many times despite vaccination and experience worse symptoms – have to be very careful as immunity wanes. India also has a younger demographic with a high burden of diabetes and cardio-respiratory diseases. They both need to get boosted.
XE Variant of Covid
It is important to note that the country has reported its first case of XE variant of Covid in Gujarat. While the government is still doing genome sequencing of the XE variant found in Covid, experts have given further insight about the dangers of XE variant and the effectiveness of booster dose against it.
As per experts, the Covid-19 booster dose is quite effective against the XE variant of the virus. Moreover, the recently detected variant has not shown any severe symptoms so far.
As advised by Union Health Minister Mansukh Mandaviya, people who have taken two doses of the Covid vaccine should wait for at least nine months before taking the booster dose, which is considered a prevention dose.
The XE variant case recently cited in Gujarat has come days after reports of the XE variant being detected in Maharashtra’s Mumbai city emerged. The patient reportedly had a foreign travel history and had contracted the new strain of coronavirus. The Health Ministry later denied the claims for the same.
The new XE variant of Covid-19 was first detected in the United Kingdom and is said to be much more transmissible than any other strain of the virus. The XE variant has been detected in several countries till now, with over 600 cases.
According to a report issued by the World Health Organisation (WHO), early estimates about the XE recombinant indicate a community growth rate advantage of 10% as compared to BA.2, however, this finding requires further confirmation.
